Election polls: The verdict on cell phones

The definitive answer on whether including cell-phone-only voters improved polls’ accuracy during this election cycle:  Sort of.
It looks like polls that included cell phones came closer to the true Obama vote share (but were farther from the true McCain share).  However, of the four polls that came closest to the true numbers, three were traditional [...]

What to watch for on the big night

Nate Silver has your hour-by-hour guide to election night.

Pollster.com calls it for Obama

Tomorrow, Barack Obama will become the first Democratic Presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an outright majority of the votes cast on Election Day — and with it a sizeable majority of electoral votes — making him the next President of the United States.
We make this projection knowing that the gap is [...]

Swing state update

From First Read: The latest on the state of the game in the swing states.
Also, Pollster.com suggests that a large number of cell phone-only households could explain why recent Virginia numbers have been over the place.  If that’s true, then the polls showing Obama in the lead are probably more accurate.

What to make of the Bounce(s)

A few points on the post-convention bounces for Obama and McCain, from Pollster.com. I’m trying not to panic despite the good news for McCain.  Palin just had a killer night and came off as not only tough but personable.  Once voters get to know her policy positions, and hear more about all those scandals in [...]