November 4, 2008...10:35 am

Electoral politics as a competitive market: What happened?

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Slate magazine’s final electoral map projection puts 273 electoral votes in the “safe Dem” column.  There’s a very good chance this election will be the sort that my generation has never seen: one that is decided early.

As an economist, I believe that competition drives the parties to adapt and market themselves to evenly divide the electorate (thank you, game theory).  But something happened this time to give us a different result: The GOP miscalculated.  It’s like Coca-Cola’s experiment with “New Coke”–they simply misjudged what people wanted, and they are going to pay, big time.  Like Coca-Cola, the GOP has enough brand recognition to bounce back from this, but it’s always odd to see a big player make such a huge misstep.

I am a newly-religious follower of Ross Douthat’s blog on conservative politics, because I’m very curious to see whose heads roll, which new leaders take the helm, and how the Republican platform changes to attract more voters.  The next 8 years should be very interesting, and very fun.

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